WHO Officially Declares Swine Flu a Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) raised its alert level for Swine Flu / H1N1 to Phase 6 (out of 6), officially classifying the outbreak as a 'global pandemic underway'.

Don't freak out just yet, though; WHO is categorizing the outbreak as 'moderate' in severity and released a statement outlining three main reasons for that categorization:
* Most people recover from infection without the need for hospitalization or medical care.
* Overall, national levels of severe illness from influenza A(H1N1) appear similar to levels seen during local seasonal influenza periods, although high levels of disease have occurred in some local areas and institutions.
* Overall, hospitals and health care systems in most countries have been able to cope with the numbers of people seeking care, although some facilities and systems have been stressed in some localities.

A key stat to keep in mind is that out of approximately 30,000 confirmed cases of Swine Flu worldwide, there have been 150 deaths. That's a death rate of about 0.5%, with many of the fatal cases including other contributing. However, the real concern about the outbreak is what happens this fall and winter, as discussed previously. Hopefully a safe vaccine will be available by then.

Swine Flu Shot

Health officials report that if production and testing continue on schedule, a swine flu shot could be ready by this October.

With more than 13,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. which have resulted in 27 deaths, a vaccine is anxiously awaited. The number of cases continues to rise and will continue to do so until a shot has been created. As discussed previously, while there the current outbreak has not be particularly deadly, researchers are concerned that this winter, when flu viruses can spread much more quickly, swine flu could become a serious problem.


The CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat said that her agency has been providing samples of the virus to drug makers and will monitor the progress of their work over the coming weeks.

U.S. passes Mexico in Confirmed Cases

In the U.S., according to the CDC, there have 4,298 cases in 47 states with 3 deaths (AK, WY, WV, MS are the only states with any cases). This total passes Mexico's confirmed cases count of 2,446 and is more than half of the total confirmed cases across the world (7,520).

U.S. 4,298
Mexico 2,446
Canada 389
Costa Rica 8

Argentina 1
Australia 1
Austria 1
Brazil 8
China 4
Colombia 7
Costa Rica 8
Cuba 1
Denmark 1
El Salvador 4
Finland 2
France 14
Germany 12
Guatemala 3
Ireland 1
Israel 7
Italy 9
Japan 4
Netherlands 3
New Zealand 7
Norway 2
Panama 29
Poland 1
Portugal 1
Republic of Korea 3
Spain 100
Sweden 2
Switzerland 1
Thailand 2
United Kingdom 71

By State:

Alabama 9
Arizona 187
California 221
Colorado 44
Connecticut 33
Delaware 54
Florida 58
Georgia 8
Hawaii 6
Idaho 3
Illinois 592
Indiana 70
Iowa 55
Kansas 23
Kentucky 10
Louisiana 33
Maine 6
Maryland 23
Massachusetts 107
Michigan 134
Minnesota 31
Missouri 18
Montana 1
Nebraska 21
Nevada 21
New Hampshire 17
New Jersey 8
New Mexico 44
New York 211
North Carolina 12
Ohio 11
Oklahoma 22
Oregon 74
Pennsylvania 22
Rhode Island 7
South Carolina 32
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 57
Texas 293 (2 deaths)
Utah 72
Vermont 1
Virginia 17
Washington 176 (1 death)
Washington, D.C. 9
Wisconsin 496

Update: The State of the Outbreak

In our last post from Sunday, we gave an update on what was known about Swine Flu. Since then, there have been a few more developments;

Swine Flu Continues to Spread

Swine Flu / H1N1 is acting like other flu viruses and continues to infect more people. In the U.S., there are now 2,600 confirmed cases across 44 states and 3 confirmed deaths.[1] Around the world, there have been more than 4,694 cases across 30 countries[2] and it shows no signs of stopping it's growth. While it appears, H1N1 is not a particularly deadly form of flu, there are two main concerns at this point:

Will the virus mutate and become more deadly this fall/winter ?

As discussed in a previous post, it's current form does not seem to be very severe, H1N1 has the potential to mutate and become a real problem epidemic.

Why are the deaths disproportionally young ?

Another issue that continues to concern scientists is the fact that those dieing from H1N1 have tended to be young and the number is only skewing younger as time goes on.[3] Acting Director for the CDC, Dr. Richard Besser, said during a news conference that the severe cases of H1N1 were "younger than what you would see in seasonal flu. In seasonal flu you tend to see a predominance of burden of disease in the elderly and in the very young, and here we are seeing it more in the younger population... That is something that raises concern."

As this chart shows, this is a concern because this was the patterned followed by the devastating Spanish Flu. However, it's only something researchers are keeping their eye on and want to understand better. The sample size is still not very significant with relatively few deaths at this point.

[1] http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
[2] http://www.who.int/en/
[3] http://www.ajc.com/health/content/shared-auto/healthnews/cdc-/626829.html