Mexico reported no new deaths from swine flu last night[1] and researchers continue to debate how serious a threat swine flu is[2], at the same time the World Health Organization is still at pandemic level phase 5 and officials say it's 'imminent' they'll go to phase 6 (their most serious level; reserved for true pandemics).[3] And it's clear from watching #swineflu on Twitter, that the public is still freaking out about it. Where does this leave us ? Here are the facts we know, with citations from credible sources:
Swine Flu / H1N1 is Real and Spreading
Swine flu is a real strain of the flu, has infected 160 people in the U.S. so far[4] and has reached Europe and Asian. It continues to infect more people and the earliest a vaccine could be ready is sometime this fall, as it will take months to create and then manufacture large quantities[5]. The virus itself is a new, unusual strain of the flu with components of the normal North American Flu, avian flu, and swine flu mixed together and therefore few people have a natural immunity to it (as they would for typical strains). This, combined with the fact that it killed a number of young, healthy victims in Mexico are what caused great concern for WHO, the CDC, and other health organizations. Each continues to take it very seriously; the CDC is recommending anyone who has had contact with someone who has the virus within the past 7 days to get tested and, if infected, treated with antiviral drugs oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir (Relenza).[6]
Researchers are cautiously optimistic it's not a nasty virus
As covered before (read article), initial reports indicated that a high percentage of young and health victim were dieing, which mirrored the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918. And that's where the cause for the concern is; if swine flu kills at a similar rate as the Spanish Flu, we have a real, nasty pandemic that could kill millions. However, if it turns out to be no more deadly than the normal flu, then there will be some deaths, but not significantly more than die each year from the flu normally (which, in the U.S. is about 36,000).[7]
A good sign is that the only deaths so far have been in Mexico, so it's possible that other factors besides H1N1 contributed to those deaths and the virus itself is not the threat it was feared to be. Based on it's behavior so far and from doing DNA analysis, it does not look H1N1 poses a significant threat,[8] however, the virus does seem to be targeting younger people, with the CDC reporting "very few cases of people over 50" in the U.S.[10]. In addition, there is a chance that it could mutate into a more deadly form, which is why health officials continue to take it very seriously and make preparations including creating vaccines. However, given there have not been observed mutations so far, it is increasingly unlikely it will become a significantly more serious threat than the normal, seasonal flu.
Initial Outbreak
Unfortunately, there is also concern that the initial outbreak will peter out and then this winter, during the cold weather (when the flu virus is transmitted more easily), it will come back stronger. This is the pattern the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic followed.[9]
H1N1 does not currently seem like a big threat, but, given how bad it could be in the unlikely chance it does turn out to be more deadly than currently thought, it's prudent to take it seriously.
[1] - http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gzz357patY4-QaJFvo9O95zMM_EQD97U7BH00
[2] - http://www.kansascity.com/444/story/1174048.html
[3] - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=ab1UPXgmE538&refer=home
[4] - http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
[5] - http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Healthday/story?id=7470044&page=1
[6] - http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/recommendations.htm
[7] - http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm
[8] - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0502/1224245838739.html
[9] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
[10] - http://uk.reuters.com/article/usTopNews/idUKTRE54229K20090503
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