WHO Officially Declares Swine Flu a Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) raised its alert level for Swine Flu / H1N1 to Phase 6 (out of 6), officially classifying the outbreak as a 'global pandemic underway'.

Don't freak out just yet, though; WHO is categorizing the outbreak as 'moderate' in severity and released a statement outlining three main reasons for that categorization:
* Most people recover from infection without the need for hospitalization or medical care.
* Overall, national levels of severe illness from influenza A(H1N1) appear similar to levels seen during local seasonal influenza periods, although high levels of disease have occurred in some local areas and institutions.
* Overall, hospitals and health care systems in most countries have been able to cope with the numbers of people seeking care, although some facilities and systems have been stressed in some localities.

A key stat to keep in mind is that out of approximately 30,000 confirmed cases of Swine Flu worldwide, there have been 150 deaths. That's a death rate of about 0.5%, with many of the fatal cases including other contributing. However, the real concern about the outbreak is what happens this fall and winter, as discussed previously. Hopefully a safe vaccine will be available by then.

CDC Map of Confirmed Cases

The CDC has created a map of the swine flu / H1N1 confirmed cases in the U.S.



http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

WHO says infected pork a concern

The World Health Organization said Wednesday that meat from pigs infected with H1N1 should not be eaten by humans and those animals should be kept out of the food supply. "Meat from sick pigs or pigs found dead should not be processed or used for human consumption under any circumstances," Jorgen Schlundt, director of WHO's Department of Food Safety, Zoonoses and Foodborne Diseases.

WHO clarified their stance, writing on their website, "Swine influenza has not been shown to be transmissible to people through eating properly handled and prepared pork (pig meat) or other products derived from pigs. The swine influenza virus
is killed by cooking temperatures of 160°F/70°C, corresponding to the general guidance for the preparation of pork and other meat."

Links:

WHO Swine Flu FAQ (.pdf)
CDC's Swine Flu Key Facts
Reuters WHO casts wary eye on meat...

Is swine flu a threat ? Summary of what we know

Mexico reported no new deaths from swine flu last night[1] and researchers continue to debate how serious a threat swine flu is[2], at the same time the World Health Organization is still at pandemic level phase 5 and officials say it's 'imminent' they'll go to phase 6 (their most serious level; reserved for true pandemics).[3] And it's clear from watching #swineflu on Twitter, that the public is still freaking out about it. Where does this leave us ? Here are the facts we know, with citations from credible sources:

Swine Flu / H1N1 is Real and Spreading

Swine flu is a real strain of the flu, has infected 160 people in the U.S. so far[4] and has reached Europe and Asian. It continues to infect more people and the earliest a vaccine could be ready is sometime this fall, as it will take months to create and then manufacture large quantities[5]. The virus itself is a new, unusual strain of the flu with components of the normal North American Flu, avian flu, and swine flu mixed together and therefore few people have a natural immunity to it (as they would for typical strains). This, combined with the fact that it killed a number of young, healthy victims in Mexico are what caused great concern for WHO, the CDC, and other health organizations. Each continues to take it very seriously; the CDC is recommending anyone who has had contact with someone who has the virus within the past 7 days to get tested and, if infected, treated with antiviral drugs oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir (Relenza).[6]


Researchers are cautiously optimistic it's not a nasty virus

As covered before (read article), initial reports indicated that a high percentage of young and health victim were dieing, which mirrored the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918. And that's where the cause for the concern is; if swine flu kills at a similar rate as the Spanish Flu, we have a real, nasty pandemic that could kill millions. However, if it turns out to be no more deadly than the normal flu, then there will be some deaths, but not significantly more than die each year from the flu normally (which, in the U.S. is about 36,000).[7]

A good sign is that the only deaths so far have been in Mexico, so it's possible that other factors besides H1N1 contributed to those deaths and the virus itself is not the threat it was feared to be. Based on it's behavior so far and from doing DNA analysis, it does not look H1N1 poses a significant threat,[8] however, the virus does seem to be targeting younger people, with the CDC reporting "very few cases of people over 50" in the U.S.[10]. In addition, there is a chance that it could mutate into a more deadly form, which is why health officials continue to take it very seriously and make preparations including creating vaccines. However, given there have not been observed mutations so far, it is increasingly unlikely it will become a significantly more serious threat than the normal, seasonal flu.

Initial Outbreak

Unfortunately, there is also concern that the initial outbreak will peter out and then this winter, during the cold weather (when the flu virus is transmitted more easily), it will come back stronger. This is the pattern the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic followed.[9]


H1N1 does not currently seem like a big threat, but, given how bad it could be in the unlikely chance it does turn out to be more deadly than currently thought, it's prudent to take it seriously.


[1] - http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gzz357patY4-QaJFvo9O95zMM_EQD97U7BH00
[2] - http://www.kansascity.com/444/story/1174048.html
[3] - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=ab1UPXgmE538&refer=home
[4] - http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
[5] - http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Healthday/story?id=7470044&page=1
[6] - http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/recommendations.htm
[7] - http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm
[8] - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0502/1224245838739.html
[9] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic
[10] - http://uk.reuters.com/article/usTopNews/idUKTRE54229K20090503

Let's not overreact: Some Swine Flu Facts

The incubation period for the flu is 2-5 days.[1] This means that if you went to Mexico two weeks ago and have not shown symptoms, you do not have the flu. If a co-worker went to Cancun over Christmas, she does not have Swine Flu.

You can not catch swine flu from eating pork.[2] Cooking pork kills the swine flu virus.

There are drugs to treat swine flu patients.[2] Four drugs are used to treat the flu: amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. The recent strain of swine flu has been resistent to amantadine and rimantadine, oseltamivir or zanamivir seem to be effective.

In the U.S. alone, 36,000 people die each year of (non-swine) flu and about 42,000 die of car accidents.[3][4] With one confirmed death in the U.S. so far and 159 in Mexico, swine flu is still very low on the list of things likely to kill you.




[1] - http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20031205/raise-your-flu-iq
[2] - http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm
[3] - http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm
[4] - http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx

Swine Flu Google Map

A biomedical researcher from Pittsburgh has put together a great Google Map of the currently confirmed Swine Flu cases.

Links and Stats from CDC's Investigation

The CDC has posted a page about their ongoing Swine Flu investigation.

Confirmed cases as of April 26, 2009 9:00 AM ET:

• California - 7
  
• Kansas - 2
  
• New York City - 8
  
• Ohio - 1
  
• Texas - 2
  
• Total U.S. Count - 20
  

Some good news is that, according to the CDC, lab tests have shown that the swine flu virus (H1N1) does respond to antiviral drugs oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza).

What is swine flu ?

Swine Influenza (swine flu) is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza that regularly cause outbreaks of influenza among pigs. Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans, however, human infections with swine flu do occur, and cases of human-to-human spread of swine flu viruses has been documented. See General Information about Swine Flu.

From December 2005 through February 2009, a total of 12 human infections with swine influenza were reported from 10 states in the United States. Since March 2009, a number of confirmed human cases of a new strain of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the U.S. and internationally have been identified. An investigation into these cases is ongoing. For more information see Human Swine Flu Investigation.

(from U.S. CDC)